Donnerstag, 22. April 2010

Sacrificing Greece to avoid Nazis

Everyone knows that history repeats itself. Nevertheless I was shocked how I didn't allow myself to recognise the similarity of the current actions to those at the dawn of National-socialism in the 1930's, until Starbatty threatend to take legal actions against Europe's rescue plan for Greece.

World of Warcraft Economies explaining Greek Financial Crisis

Sometimes I find it easier, to bring things down to an simple example, if they start getting complicated.
To understand the current problem, I imagine Greece as a World of Warcraft Server. Phoney, a well respected and beloved Gnome, is the Leader of that World. Since he likes the Server-Population, and found out, that they would prefer to do exciting things instead of boring grind, he decided to increase the money rewarded for accomplishing Quests.
The inhabitants are rather sunshiny about their new won fortune and spend the gold on expensive Cloth respectively Armor and Status Objects like Flying Ponies and exclusive Mounts.

Phoney's WoW economy is financed by the income his Server get's from Repairing Costs. The money he receives from repairs stays relatively stable, however people start avoiding repairs by using expensive Heirlooms that don't require any repairs at all. Since Phoney needs the income from repairs to finance Quest rewards and to maintain his World, which is constantly being damaged by its Inhabitants having fun (A look on the Party zone Wintergrasp gives you an idea how much money he has to pay to gnomish engineers and human masons.), he finds himself in the position where his costs exceed his income.

A Chinese Farmer Goblin, offers Phoney credit to finance the expensive Quest rewards.
Used to high rewards, Phoneys Inhabitants ask for more Quests, forcing Phoney to introduce Argent Tournaments, which are expensive and offer higher Rewards again.
With the credit cycle, speeding up, Phoney recognises, that he can't even pay his rates to the Gold Farmers, and starts asking for credit to pay his debtors.

Teflon an extremely greedy Goblin, decides to make his profit now, asking Phoney to give him his money back. Since Phoney has no money at all, the Goblins doubting, that he will ever get his money back.
The news of Phoney not being able to pay his depths, makes it round, and the Farming Goblins suddenly ask for higher rates.

With his back against the wall, Phoney decides that it's time now to reduce his costs. In order to do so, he reduces the rewards on Quests drastically. As a result, the inhabitants start rioting and going on strike.

No bail out

At this point we leave Phoney and return to Greece.
Our gnomish example didn't contain any illegal examples, as Greece is accused to have taken illegal actions, because I'm not going to judge on this. As a matter of fact, every Nation is having shady deals to finance itself.

As you know, Greece is part of the European Currency Union. This Union contains the Verbot to pay for each others debths.
In an attempt to outmaneuver this Verbot called "no bail out", the Euro-Union decided to give Greece Credit, in case the financial market is not willing to do so.
Which is in fact a bail out, but to make it pass jurisdiction they said, it wouldn't be a guarantee.

History returns

When Starbatty announced that he would take legal actions against Germany's agreement to Greece bail out, it was like somebody finally mentioned what national consciousness had on its mind, but was to afraid to recognise.

One name he mentioned was enough, to bring the whole Nation into alarm: Brüning.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, is exactly doing what Brüning did in the 1930's and which opened the way for the Nazis Reign.

Although the Greeks behave very reasonable when tightening their belt, their whole economy is based on consumption. Instead of investing in production, they preferred to buy premium cars from Germany. With that in mind, if you cut down the salaries, the Greeks will spend less money. If the supermarkets, cinemas, stores etc sell less, they will fire employees. Unemployment will be the result. Unemployed people don't pay taxes, making the situation worse, since the public sector is the biggest employer in Greece.

Brüning did the same in 1930. He reduced the state's costs, which lead to mass unemployment and frustration in the lower and middle class.
When you are facing poverty or are living in poverty, you are very vulnerable for radicals. As long as they promise to improve your situation, you will believe in anything they say.

The Hellenes will definitely not become Nazis, they are a historically a mix from different tribes and nations. But they will surely show radicalisation, at least against Europe or Germany.

Sacrificing Greece by kicking them out of the Euro

The only chance left for Greece is leaving the Euro Zone and negotiating quotes with it's debtors.
This means, the debtors will lose half of his investments, which is why they won't like it.
Returning to their old currency, Greece will use inflation to become attractive for investors and to sell it's products.
For instance, Greece's biggest export is Tourism. If its exchange rates are more attractive for Euros and Dollars, say a Beer costs 2 drachma, but 2 drachma just cost one Dollar or Euro, a beer will essentially be 1 Euro/ Dollar for you. In this case, you might think about visiting Hellas rich culture.
However this return to a healthy economy by avoiding depression comes at the cost of setting back the dream of a united Europe.

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